Showing posts with label P/B. Show all posts
Showing posts with label P/B. Show all posts
Sunday, 29 January 2017
Thursday, 9 July 2015
Singapore Post (S08.SI)
Sustainability of dividend
I like dividend stocks. The money is better in my pocket and tangible rather than getting stuck in the company balance sheet. That is the reason why I like Singpost so much. Having bought Singpost at $0.98 and yielding 6.25c dividend then, it was giving me 6.37% dividend yield. Recently, management raised dividend to 7c, amounting to 7.14% yield. While I welcome the dividend bump, I worry that it may not be sustainable. Many companies spam lots of dividend only to abruptly stop the flow of money when the cash pile depletes.I've compiled the changes in the cash pile of Singpost over the years and displayed it in the chart below.
As one can see, there is no definite pattern in the change of cash positions year to year. However, it can be seen that the data is skewed towards net increase. Even it out over the years, Singpost has actually increased its cash pile despite giving generous dividends. Increasing yearly dividend by 0.75c will only increase cash demand to the tune of $16.1m (based on outstanding shares of 2,146,774,225). That is less than 10% of the net cash increase during the latest financial year. Therefore, I would conclude barring unforeseen circumstance, Singpost is in good position to service that additional dividend payout.
P/E and P/B valuation
For the full year ended 2014, the EPS was 6.849c. Based on the price of $1.90, Singpost currently has a P/E of 27.7. The P/E is admittedly on the high side as I am more comfortable with stocks with P/E below 20.
Net asset value per share was 68.40c. P/B is 2.78. Similarly I'm usually not comfortable with P/B value above 1. When trawling the market for gems, I will look for P/B < 1 for safety margin and also for bargain.
From P/E and P/B valuation point of view, Singpost is indeed overvalued. A P/E of 27 is usually accorded to company with growth potential. Even though Singpost increased its revenue by 12% for the whole year, its underlying net profit only increased by 5.2%. This can be attributed to the low profit margin associated with the Logistics business Singpost is diversifying into. Mail segment is stagnating for a few years but is sadly, the cash cow of Singpost. Can such a high share price justify the high revenue growth but low bottomline growth of Singpost?
I would hold the stock myself since I bought it low and yield from my capital outlay is good. However, looking at valuations, Singpost is currently overpriced and there are better dividend yielding stocks out there.
Acquisitions and Disposals
In times of boom, companies had been known to go on an acquisition spree only to find that they had overpaid. Singpost, in its bid to diversify from its traditional mail business, had gone through a restructuring. The restructuring included acquisitions of logistics company and disposals of some traditional businesses, together with joint ventures and investments from Alibaba. I'm mainly concerned with the pace of acquisitions and the price that the management paid for the companies. Here's the rundown of the acquisitions and disposals Singpost did for the past year.
Acquisitions
- The Store House1
- Paid S$121,000 for 75% of shares with net tangible asset last recorded as S$11,000
- F.S Mackenzie2
- Consideration up to S$14.8m for entire paid up share capital
- Net asset value was S$5.4m
- Couriers Please Holdings3
- Acquisition at S$105m with prior net tangible asset recorded at roughly S$3m
- From the change in net profit after acquisition, it seems that Couriers Please Holdings added $9,417,000 to the net profit of Singpost (if assumption is correct, the P/E at which Singpost paid for Couriers Please seems reasonable)
- Famous Pacific Shipping4
- 90% holdings for NZ$3.6m with potential consideration up to NZ$8m because of potential earn-out consideration (don't really know what earn-out consideration is)
- Net asset value is NZ$816,104
- Hubbed Holdings5
- Quantium Solutions (Australia) acquired 30% of Hubbed Holdings for S$4.6m
- Quantium will get 5% more shareholdings if some pre-determined performance benchmark not met. If performance met, Quantium will pay an extra S$1.06m
- Net asset value of Hubbed Holdings is roughly S$1m
Disposals
- Novation Solutions & DataPost (HK)6
- Entirely disposed of both assets for $24,388,951
- Net tangible asset recorded as $19,214,000
- DataPost Pte Ltd7
- Sold 90% of shares for $39,299,511
- Net tangible asset was recorded as $30,690,000
I see that what Singpost paid was consistently much higher than the net asset value the acquired company possessed. However, I also feel that book value of company is not a good gauge for valuation the companies. Singpost itself is valued at nearly 3x P/B. Instead, the EPS of the company would be a better guide to see value. I will appreciate announcements to be like that of Couriers Please where impacts to net profits were shown. Looking at the announcement details, it would seem Singpost paid a reasonable price for Couriers Please and I would hope to extrapolate it to the other acquisitions.
With the exception of Couriers Please, the other acquisitions were relatively small and should not impact Singpost greatly if it was a bad investment. Furthermore, the capital expenditure for acqusitions is supported by disposals of companies whose considerations were significant.
From what I heard at Singpost's AGM, the M&A actions are not likely to stop just yet and there are more to come. Chairman was very supportive of the director that oversees M&A.
Earnings
As mentioned at the AGM, revenue rose 12% to the highest ever at S$920m. Underlying net profit similarly rose 5.2% to S$157m, highest ever. I am disappointed that profit has not kept up with the growth of revenue. This was actually mentioned at the AGM with one lady pointing out that net profit actually decreased. CEO of Singpost reasoned forcefully that in the process of transforming Singpost, there were many charges that cut into profits. They had to strip them out to show that the core businesses were actually doing well.
What was impressive about CEO Wolfgang Baier, was that he acknowledged the Mail business of Singpost was declining and never going back. 150 years of good business, it's not going to improve. Instead, Singpost had to transform to maintain its competitiveness. I liked his pragmatism and honesty. That is how problems get solved. Many management refused to acknowledge problems and refuse to change or improve. It was my first time attending an AGM and I was really impressed with the management, replying tough questions cordially and directly.
Conclusion
My confidence with Singpost remains strong especially after witnessing the strength of the management. On the day of AGM, it was announced that Alibaba invested a further S$279m in Singpost. Chairman kept reiterating that Alibaba was a tough investor to satisfy. Given that Alibaba had given Singpost their stamp of approval, I will likewise trust my investment in Singpost.
I will continue monitoring the growth of profit along with growth of revenue. It has been almost 2 years where profit growth had disappointed me. Perhaps at some point, I will realise Singpost is not going to be as profitable as before, but the time is not now.
Since buying Singpost at 2012, the dividends had paid almost 20% of my initial investment. Hopefully I will hold it till the stock pays itself. While I am not going to sell my holdings anytime soon, I think ultimately at $1.90, Singpost is overvalued and not a value buy for buyers. Dividend yield stands at 3.7% and while this is respectable, there are better companies out there that provides better yield and growth opportunities. Hence, people looking at Singpost, just pray it may drop. I may also increase my shareholdings if it ever drop low enough! (at least 5% div yield).
1. http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX_Ann.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=307340
Sunday, 6 July 2014
Financial Jargon
Ever saw P/E somewhere in stocks discussion forum? Or EPS in the annual reports of companies? P/E and EPS are some of the financial terms you'll find in the world of investing. Before I start my first case study, it is important to know what the terms mean. They help one to decide the intrinsic performance of a company as well as the valuation of the company in the market. Here are some of the more common terms and also what it represents.
P/E (aka Price to Earning Ratio)
The most common metric that you will find. Normally found alongside stock quotes. The number can be found by the equation: P/E = Stock Price / Earnings
By Earnings, it is meant as Earnings Per Share
P/E ratio helps to value the stock of a company. It is done by comparing the stock price relative to the income generated. For example, if SingPost has a P/E of 26, the buyer is actually paying $26 for every $1 that the company earns. By comparing the P/E ratio of different companies within the same industry, one can find out which companies are "cheaper".
However, P/E is not a clear cut metric to buy stocks. P/E may be higher because the company is expanding fast. P/E may be low because company is in a unpopular industry. P/E will not even exist if the company is loss-making. You can use more ratios introduced further on to determine whether a company is a "good buy".
EPS (aka Earnings Per Share)
The earnings per share made by the company in a financial year. Normal stated in annual reports. Calculated according to the equation: EPS = Net Profit / Total Shares Outstanding
For example, SingPost has a net profit of $128,175,000 and has an outstanding ordinary share of 1,899,921,000. Using the formula, you'll find that the EPS is 6.75 cents as reported in the annual report. Going a step further to find P/E ratio, the stock price of SingPost is currently at $1.765 while EPS is $0.0675.
Dividing stock price by EPS, P/E = 26.14.
P/B (aka Price to Book Ratio)
Book here refers to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the company. P/B ratio helps one determine whether the stock is priced at a discount or premium to its tangible assets. ( < 1 represents a discount while > 1 represents a premium)
Comparing P/B ratios between companies of similar industries will help determine which one is a good catch. This is especially important because there are different "standard" of P/B in each industry. For example, land developer normally trade at a discount to NAV while technology stocks trades at a premium.
Dividend Yield
When the company chooses to distribute part of its earnings to the shareholders, the money is termed as the dividend. Dividend yield is calculated by the equation: Annual Dividend / Current Stock Price
Dividend distribution is definitely not indicative of a company's strength. Apple Inc, for example, famously did not pay dividend from 1996 to 2012. The stock price was not held back AT ALL.
However, companies that give away dividend is an added bonus as the cash given back is in your pocket. Furthermore, it shows that the company does have the cash and not just "cooking the book".
SGX had once undergone a S-Chip Scandal episode where it involved a number of China-based companies listed in Singapore. The companies had suddenly gone bankrupt and was later found to be guilty of accounting fraud. Regular dividend distribution acts as a detector to see a company is potentially fraudulent as real hard cash has to be paid out.
These four financial metrics are the most common metrics I use to filter out a preliminary list of stocks to invest. Google Finance provides a very good platform to filter out a list based on your required criteria. From there, you research deeper on those shortlisted companies and pick the most promising one. This is what "doing your homework" is when it comes to investing.
P/E (aka Price to Earning Ratio)
The most common metric that you will find. Normally found alongside stock quotes. The number can be found by the equation: P/E = Stock Price / Earnings
By Earnings, it is meant as Earnings Per Share
P/E ratio helps to value the stock of a company. It is done by comparing the stock price relative to the income generated. For example, if SingPost has a P/E of 26, the buyer is actually paying $26 for every $1 that the company earns. By comparing the P/E ratio of different companies within the same industry, one can find out which companies are "cheaper".
However, P/E is not a clear cut metric to buy stocks. P/E may be higher because the company is expanding fast. P/E may be low because company is in a unpopular industry. P/E will not even exist if the company is loss-making. You can use more ratios introduced further on to determine whether a company is a "good buy".
EPS (aka Earnings Per Share)
The earnings per share made by the company in a financial year. Normal stated in annual reports. Calculated according to the equation: EPS = Net Profit / Total Shares Outstanding
For example, SingPost has a net profit of $128,175,000 and has an outstanding ordinary share of 1,899,921,000. Using the formula, you'll find that the EPS is 6.75 cents as reported in the annual report. Going a step further to find P/E ratio, the stock price of SingPost is currently at $1.765 while EPS is $0.0675.
Dividing stock price by EPS, P/E = 26.14.
P/B (aka Price to Book Ratio)
Book here refers to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the company. P/B ratio helps one determine whether the stock is priced at a discount or premium to its tangible assets. ( < 1 represents a discount while > 1 represents a premium)
Comparing P/B ratios between companies of similar industries will help determine which one is a good catch. This is especially important because there are different "standard" of P/B in each industry. For example, land developer normally trade at a discount to NAV while technology stocks trades at a premium.
Dividend Yield
When the company chooses to distribute part of its earnings to the shareholders, the money is termed as the dividend. Dividend yield is calculated by the equation: Annual Dividend / Current Stock Price
Dividend distribution is definitely not indicative of a company's strength. Apple Inc, for example, famously did not pay dividend from 1996 to 2012. The stock price was not held back AT ALL.
However, companies that give away dividend is an added bonus as the cash given back is in your pocket. Furthermore, it shows that the company does have the cash and not just "cooking the book".
SGX had once undergone a S-Chip Scandal episode where it involved a number of China-based companies listed in Singapore. The companies had suddenly gone bankrupt and was later found to be guilty of accounting fraud. Regular dividend distribution acts as a detector to see a company is potentially fraudulent as real hard cash has to be paid out.
These four financial metrics are the most common metrics I use to filter out a preliminary list of stocks to invest. Google Finance provides a very good platform to filter out a list based on your required criteria. From there, you research deeper on those shortlisted companies and pick the most promising one. This is what "doing your homework" is when it comes to investing.
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