To Hold or Sell Apple Inc.

Every buy or sell decision made in the stock market is a deliberate and conscious decision to me. This is because of the numerous factors that are unique to each stocks and also due to many conflicting teachings I had received over years.

Today, I'm particularly conflicted on whether to sell my Apple Inc holdings which I bought at $88.58 27 May 2014. As of now, Apple is trading at $102.25 - representing a gain of 15.4%. The reason I bought Apple was quite clear and it was to bank on the upcoming release of iPhone 6 and also a bet on iWatch release. The primary aim of my buy decision had been achieved but as time goes by I realised Apple had further upside in iPhone 6 sale results and quarterly results. After Apple's quarterly earning was released on 20 October where 39 million iPhones were sold and EPS came in higher at $1.42, all my reasons to hold Apple were fulfilled and stock price rose accordingly.

So is it time to sell now?

That is my dilemma which I hope to sort out here. Instead of asking is it time to sell, I should ask, "are there reasons to hold?" Therefore, I listed a few thoughts on the reasons to hold and also counter-arguments to them.

1. iWatch has been revealed to be be released in 2015 and this will provide impetus for stock price. However, it is a long wait to 2015 where macro market conditions are unknown to us. Furthermore, iWatch may be a miss or that its earning potential is not significant.
2. Apple Pay announced today may be a great integration to iPhone 6, strengthening the ecosystem of the iOS and generating revenue. That said, I think this argument is lacking firstly because of other existing paying system like Google Wallet. Apple Pay is definitely not a new innovation that can push stock price. 
3. Next quarter results should be fantastic. Given that this stellar quarter earnings did not even include iPhone 6 sold in China, next quarter should be impressive now that iPhone 6 is released in China. However, as per point 1, it is a long wait to the next quarterly results and the next 3 months may not guarantee that Apple may rise or maintain its level today. 

As you can see, for every point I had listed, I have some counter-arguments for it and there lies the dilemma. To sell or hold Apple? 

After much consideration, I have decided to keep my Apple stocks so as achieve my mantra of investing  on the stocks rather than trading them. Some people may say that Apple is losing innovation and that  iWatch may not live up to its hype, however to me, it is clear that Apple is still dominant in the smartphone market. I acknowledge that Apple may become Nokia or Blackberry one day. But the day is not today. Apple continues to sell iPhones and maintain an economic moat around its business.

Unless 1) global economy enters recession / stock market turns weak (I believe Apple product will lose its shine in recessions), or 2) when its earnings start to disappoint or 3) Stock price outstrips fundamental value, I'll still probably keep this stock.